Critical Crossroads: key trends in the cross-border aid response

The Centre for Operational Analysis and Research (COAR)’s latest report, Critical Crossroads, produced for AFNS, examines key trends in the cross-border aid response to northern Syria. It highlights the impact of declining funds, challenges in Localisation, and emerging opportunities for programming and coordination.

The report outlines positive progress in Localisation, especially in the health and education sectors, and emphasises the need for a more holistic approach, involving non-traditional local actors such as unions and associations. However, diminishing funds are putting significant financial pressure on local NGOs, threatening future progress.

Opportunities for strengthening the humanitarian-development-peace nexus in northwest Syria are also noted. The report specifically suggests that long-term water access initiatives could enhance resilience. Yet, ongoing political and security challenges, along with sanctions, continue to pose obstacles and highlight the need for comprehensive adoption of nexus approaches.

The report makes key recommendations for donors and AFNS. It encourages donors to commit to multi-year, sector-specific engagements to build trust, enhance governance structures, and improve coordination to address the risks of overcompliance with sanctions.

For AFNS, recommendations include a focus on early recovery projects, improving the use of data for area-based programming, and increasing support for local and grassroots organisations. These insights will inform AFNS’s upcoming allocations, aimed at advancing Localisation and exploring early recovery initiatives.